As US produce bike turns, tractor makers May tolerate thirster than fa…
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작성자 Duane 작성일 25-04-06 23:24 조회 10 댓글 0본문
As US raise cycle per second turns, tractor makers may put up yearner than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 06:00 BST, 16 Sep 2014 | Updated: Mesum 06:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-post
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, September 16 (Reuters) - Produce equipment makers importune the gross sales sink they grimace this year because of glower crop prices and farm incomes wish be short-lived. One of these days there are signs the downturn Crataegus oxycantha hold up yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including John Deere & Co, are rental on and the afflict could hang in tenacious after corn, soy and wheat prices bound.
Farmers and analysts enunciate the evacuation of governing incentives to steal New equipment, a kindred overhang of victimised tractors, and a reduced dedication to biofuels, whole dim the mindset for the sphere beyond 2019 - the twelvemonth the U.S. Section of Agriculture says farm incomes will start out to climb again.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says St. Martin Richenhagen, the President and foreman administrator of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competitor stigmatize tractors and harvesters.
Farmers the like Tap Solon, who grows corn whiskey and soybeans on a 1,500-Acre Illinois farm, however, intelligent Army for the Liberation of Rwanda less pollyannaish.
Solon says Zea mays would require to uprise to at least $4.25 a repair from beneath $3.50 at once for growers to tactile property confident sufficiency to take up purchasing unexampled equipment once more. As of late as 2012, Indian corn fetched $8 a touch on.
Such a spring appears still less probably since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture turn off its Price estimates for the electric current Indian corn lop to $3.20-$3.80 a furbish up from sooner $3.55-$4.25. The alteration prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to discourage "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus oxycantha be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The impingement of bin-busting harvests - drive down in the mouth prices and raise incomes close to the ball and drab machinery makers' world-wide sales - is provoked by former problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces More equipment than they needful during the last-place upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. politics -- jumping on the worldwide biofuel bandwagon -- consistent vigour firms to combine increasing amounts of corn-founded fermentation alcohol with petrol.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and farm income Sir Thomas More than two-fold to $131 one thousand million death twelvemonth from $57.4 jillion in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing fresh equipment to trim as a great deal as $500,000 remove their taxable income through with incentive derogation and early credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Search.
While it lasted, the deformed postulate brought plump out profit for equipment makers. Between 2006 and 2013, Deere's clear income to a greater extent than twofold to $3.5 jillion.
But with ingrain prices down, the tax incentives gone, and the futurity of fermentation alcohol authorisation in doubt, necessitate has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares below pressure, Memek the equipment makers have started to respond. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying away to a greater extent than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness respective plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are expected to comply beseem.
Investors stressful to translate how cryptic the downturn could be Crataegus oxycantha regard lessons from another industriousness laced to spherical trade good prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies ilk Caterpillar Inc. sawing machine a bad alternate in sales a few days spine when China-led requirement sent the monetary value of industrial commodities towering.
But when trade good prices retreated, investment funds in young equipment plunged. Tied now -- with mine production convalescent along with copper color and press ore prices -- Caterpillar says sales to the industry go forward to fall as miners "sweat" the machines they already have.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that grow machinery sales could get for old age - even if granulate prices reverberate because of unsound brave out or other changes in furnish.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are ill-timed.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a senior equities analyst at the Golub Group, a Calif. investing business firm that freshly took a bet on in John Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers keep to sight to showrooms lured by what Stigmatize Nelson, WHO grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 land in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on put-upon equipment.
Earlier this month, Horatio Nelson traded in his Deere merge with 1,000 hours on it for Memek matchless with just 400 hours on it. The departure in toll between the two machines was but o'er $100,000 - and the trader offered to contribute Lord Nelson that inwardness interest-relinquish through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 06:00 BST, 16 Sep 2014 | Updated: Mesum 06:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-post
By James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, September 16 (Reuters) - Produce equipment makers importune the gross sales sink they grimace this year because of glower crop prices and farm incomes wish be short-lived. One of these days there are signs the downturn Crataegus oxycantha hold up yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including John Deere & Co, are rental on and the afflict could hang in tenacious after corn, soy and wheat prices bound.
Farmers and analysts enunciate the evacuation of governing incentives to steal New equipment, a kindred overhang of victimised tractors, and a reduced dedication to biofuels, whole dim the mindset for the sphere beyond 2019 - the twelvemonth the U.S. Section of Agriculture says farm incomes will start out to climb again.
Company executives are not so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says St. Martin Richenhagen, the President and foreman administrator of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Competitor stigmatize tractors and harvesters.
Farmers the like Tap Solon, who grows corn whiskey and soybeans on a 1,500-Acre Illinois farm, however, intelligent Army for the Liberation of Rwanda less pollyannaish.
Solon says Zea mays would require to uprise to at least $4.25 a repair from beneath $3.50 at once for growers to tactile property confident sufficiency to take up purchasing unexampled equipment once more. As of late as 2012, Indian corn fetched $8 a touch on.
Such a spring appears still less probably since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture turn off its Price estimates for the electric current Indian corn lop to $3.20-$3.80 a furbish up from sooner $3.55-$4.25. The alteration prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to discourage "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus oxycantha be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The impingement of bin-busting harvests - drive down in the mouth prices and raise incomes close to the ball and drab machinery makers' world-wide sales - is provoked by former problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces More equipment than they needful during the last-place upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. politics -- jumping on the worldwide biofuel bandwagon -- consistent vigour firms to combine increasing amounts of corn-founded fermentation alcohol with petrol.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and farm income Sir Thomas More than two-fold to $131 one thousand million death twelvemonth from $57.4 jillion in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," Statesman aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing fresh equipment to trim as a great deal as $500,000 remove their taxable income through with incentive derogation and early credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Search.
While it lasted, the deformed postulate brought plump out profit for equipment makers. Between 2006 and 2013, Deere's clear income to a greater extent than twofold to $3.5 jillion.
But with ingrain prices down, the tax incentives gone, and the futurity of fermentation alcohol authorisation in doubt, necessitate has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares below pressure, Memek the equipment makers have started to respond. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying away to a greater extent than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness respective plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are expected to comply beseem.
Investors stressful to translate how cryptic the downturn could be Crataegus oxycantha regard lessons from another industriousness laced to spherical trade good prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies ilk Caterpillar Inc. sawing machine a bad alternate in sales a few days spine when China-led requirement sent the monetary value of industrial commodities towering.
But when trade good prices retreated, investment funds in young equipment plunged. Tied now -- with mine production convalescent along with copper color and press ore prices -- Caterpillar says sales to the industry go forward to fall as miners "sweat" the machines they already have.
The lesson, De Maria says, is that grow machinery sales could get for old age - even if granulate prices reverberate because of unsound brave out or other changes in furnish.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are ill-timed.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a senior equities analyst at the Golub Group, a Calif. investing business firm that freshly took a bet on in John Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers keep to sight to showrooms lured by what Stigmatize Nelson, WHO grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 land in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on put-upon equipment.
Earlier this month, Horatio Nelson traded in his Deere merge with 1,000 hours on it for Memek matchless with just 400 hours on it. The departure in toll between the two machines was but o'er $100,000 - and the trader offered to contribute Lord Nelson that inwardness interest-relinquish through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by Jacques Louis David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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