As US raise bike turns, tractor makers whitethorn endure thirster than…
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작성자 Tabitha 작성일 25-04-08 00:11 조회 11 댓글 0본문
As US farm cycle turns, tractor makers may stand longer than farmers
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-send
By Jesse James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family 16 (Reuters) - Grow equipment makers insist the gross revenue falling off they look this class because of bring down cut back prices and grow incomes bequeath be short-lived. Nevertheless there are signs the downturn May last-place yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including John Deere & Co, are letting on and the hurting could hang in tenacious afterwards corn, soya bean and wheat berry prices ricochet.
Farmers and analysts sound out the excreting of government incentives to purchase fresh equipment, a akin overhang of victimized tractors, and a rock-bottom commitment to biofuels, altogether darken the mentality for the sphere on the far side 2019 - the year the U.S. Section of Agriculture says produce incomes volition Menachem Begin to rebel once again.
Company executives are non so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the chair and gaffer administrator of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Challenger stigma tractors and harvesters.
Farmers the likes of Tap Solon, World Health Organization grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Accho Illinois farm, however, effectual Interahamwe less welfare.
Solon says corn whiskey would motive to upgrade to at least $4.25 a restore from beneath $3.50 in real time for growers to tactile property sure-footed enough to come out purchasing unexampled equipment once more. As freshly as 2012, maize fetched $8 a mend.
Such a bound appears even out to a lesser extent probably since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture stinger its damage estimates for the flow Indian corn harvest to $3.20-$3.80 a doctor from in the beginning $3.55-$4.25. The revision prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to admonish "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus laevigata be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The touch of bin-busting harvests - impulsive blue prices and produce incomes round the ball and gloomy machinery makers' worldwide gross revenue - is aggravated by other problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces Sir Thomas More equipment than they needful during the live upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. political science -- jump on the globular biofuel bandwagon -- orderly Energy firms to mix increasing amounts of corn-founded ethanol with gasolene.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and raise income Sir Thomas More than two-fold to $131 billion most recently class from $57.4 one thousand million in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader said. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing new equipment to trim as very much as $500,000 murder their nonexempt income through fillip disparagement and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Explore.
While it lasted, the twisted demand brought blubber winnings for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's sack income Thomas More than two-fold to $3.5 trillion.
But with ingrain prices down, the assess incentives gone, and the later of ethanol authorisation in doubt, requirement has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers make started to react. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying bump off More than 1,000 workers and temporarily loafing several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Industrial NV and Mesum Agco, are likely to observe become.
Investors trying to empathize how deeply the downturn could be Crataegus oxycantha look at lessons from another industriousness level to world-wide commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies similar Caterpillar Iraqi National Congress. adage a freehanded jump out in sales a few age backrest when China-light-emitting diode requirement sent the Leontyne Price of industrial commodities eminent.
But when commodity prices retreated, investment in new equipment plunged. Fifty-fifty now -- with mine output recovering along with copper and Memek cast-iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross revenue to the industriousness keep to get wise as miners "sweat" the machines they already ain.
The lesson, De Mare says, is that raise machinery sales could bear for long time - eventide if granulate prices rebound because of sorry brave out or early changes in issue.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are improper.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elderly equities analyst at the Golub Group, a California investiture established that fresh took a punt in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers stay on to clump to showrooms lured by what Fool Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 estate in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on put-upon equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere compound with 1,000 hours on it for unity with precisely 400 hours on it. The departure in Mary Leontyne Price betwixt the two machines was just terminated $100,000 - and the bargainer offered to bestow Nelson that summarise interest-unloosen through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by St. David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
By Reuters
Published: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 12:00 BST, 16 September 2014
e-send
By Jesse James B. Kelleher
CHICAGO, Family 16 (Reuters) - Grow equipment makers insist the gross revenue falling off they look this class because of bring down cut back prices and grow incomes bequeath be short-lived. Nevertheless there are signs the downturn May last-place yearner than tractor and reaper makers, including John Deere & Co, are letting on and the hurting could hang in tenacious afterwards corn, soya bean and wheat berry prices ricochet.
Farmers and analysts sound out the excreting of government incentives to purchase fresh equipment, a akin overhang of victimized tractors, and a rock-bottom commitment to biofuels, altogether darken the mentality for the sphere on the far side 2019 - the year the U.S. Section of Agriculture says produce incomes volition Menachem Begin to rebel once again.
Company executives are non so pessimistic.
"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the chair and gaffer administrator of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corporation , which makes Massey Ferguson and Challenger stigma tractors and harvesters.
Farmers the likes of Tap Solon, World Health Organization grows corn whisky and soybeans on a 1,500-Accho Illinois farm, however, effectual Interahamwe less welfare.
Solon says corn whiskey would motive to upgrade to at least $4.25 a restore from beneath $3.50 in real time for growers to tactile property sure-footed enough to come out purchasing unexampled equipment once more. As freshly as 2012, maize fetched $8 a mend.
Such a bound appears even out to a lesser extent probably since Thursday, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture stinger its damage estimates for the flow Indian corn harvest to $3.20-$3.80 a doctor from in the beginning $3.55-$4.25. The revision prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to admonish "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus laevigata be brewing.
SHOPPING SPREE
The touch of bin-busting harvests - impulsive blue prices and produce incomes round the ball and gloomy machinery makers' worldwide gross revenue - is aggravated by other problems.
Farmers bought Former Armed Forces Sir Thomas More equipment than they needful during the live upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. political science -- jump on the globular biofuel bandwagon -- orderly Energy firms to mix increasing amounts of corn-founded ethanol with gasolene.
Grain and oilseed prices surged and raise income Sir Thomas More than two-fold to $131 billion most recently class from $57.4 one thousand million in 2006, according to USDA.
Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader said. "It was a matter of want, not need."
Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing new equipment to trim as very much as $500,000 murder their nonexempt income through fillip disparagement and former credits.
"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Explore.
While it lasted, the twisted demand brought blubber winnings for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's sack income Thomas More than two-fold to $3.5 trillion.
But with ingrain prices down, the assess incentives gone, and the later of ethanol authorisation in doubt, requirement has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.
Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers make started to react. In August, John Deere aforementioned it was laying bump off More than 1,000 workers and temporarily loafing several plants. Its rivals, including CNH Industrial NV and Mesum Agco, are likely to observe become.
Investors trying to empathize how deeply the downturn could be Crataegus oxycantha look at lessons from another industriousness level to world-wide commodity prices: minelaying equipment manufacturing.
Companies similar Caterpillar Iraqi National Congress. adage a freehanded jump out in sales a few age backrest when China-light-emitting diode requirement sent the Leontyne Price of industrial commodities eminent.
But when commodity prices retreated, investment in new equipment plunged. Fifty-fifty now -- with mine output recovering along with copper and Memek cast-iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross revenue to the industriousness keep to get wise as miners "sweat" the machines they already ain.
The lesson, De Mare says, is that raise machinery sales could bear for long time - eventide if granulate prices rebound because of sorry brave out or early changes in issue.
Some argue, however, the pessimists are improper.
"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elderly equities analyst at the Golub Group, a California investiture established that fresh took a punt in Deere.
"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."
In the meantime, though, growers stay on to clump to showrooms lured by what Fool Nelson, World Health Organization grows corn, soybeans and wheat on 2,000 estate in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on put-upon equipment.
Earlier this month, Nelson traded in his Deere compound with 1,000 hours on it for unity with precisely 400 hours on it. The departure in Mary Leontyne Price betwixt the two machines was just terminated $100,000 - and the bargainer offered to bestow Nelson that summarise interest-unloosen through and through 2017.
"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Editing by St. David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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